GP Consultation Demand Set to Surge 23% by 2040 as Ireland's Population Grows
New ESRI report shows GP consultation demand will rise 23% by 2040. Irish College of GPs calls for urgent planning to address healthcare capacity challenges.
A new report from the Economic & Social Research Institute (ESRI) has revealed that demand for General Practitioner consultations will increase by at least 23 percent by 2040, prompting urgent calls from the Irish College of GPs for accelerated planning to address mounting healthcare pressures.
The projection reflects Ireland's continued population growth and aging demographics, issues that will significantly impact healthcare delivery across the country, including Cork and the wider Munster region where population centres continue to expand.
The Irish College of GPs, which represents over 85 percent of practicing GPs in the Republic of Ireland with 4,500 members, has responded by dramatically expanding its training programmes. The organisation currently has 1,191 GPs in supervised training, with training places increasing by 22 percent last year alone.
Dr Deirdre Collins, Chair of the Board of the Irish College of GPs, said:
"We are acutely aware of the impact of the growing population, and the ageing population, on GP services. This ESRI report is welcome, because it helps give fresh insights into the challenges facing policy makers and the HSE in meeting the growing demand for GP services."
The College has taken concrete steps to address anticipated shortages. In July 2024, 350 new trainees began their four-year training programme, with another 350 set to start this July.
Dr Diarmuid Quinlan, Medical Director of the Irish College of GPs, explained:
"The College has rapidly expanded the number of training places for GPs on its four-year programme in recent years. The College has also initiated a successful International Medical Graduate programme for 150 international GPs to work in rural practices for two years, and we look forward to expanding that programme with the support of the HSE."
However, College leadership warns that training expansion alone will not solve the looming healthcare capacity crisis. The organisation is calling for urgent delivery of the Strategic Review of General Practice to enable long-term planning.
Fintan Foy, CEO of the Irish College of GPs, said:
"The ESRI report paints a stark picture of the impact of the growing population on GP demand in the coming years. We believe the Strategic Review of General Practice needs to be expedited to ensure we can put long term plans in place to meet the growing healthcare needs of the Irish population."
The College emphasises that resources will be crucial to enable GPs to establish practices in areas experiencing high population growth and in rural regions where existing GPs are retiring.
