ESA Confirms Near-Earth Asteroid 2024 YR4 Poses No Threat to Earth
ESA has confirmed that asteroid 2024 YR4 no longer poses a threat to Earth, reducing its impact probability for 2032 to just 0.001%. 🚀ðŸ”
The European Space Agency (ESA) has significantly downgraded the risk of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting Earth in 2032, with the latest assessment reducing the probability to just 0.001%.
The asteroid, which will make a close pass by Earth on 22 December 2032, initially raised concerns within the global planetary defence community when its potential impact probability climbed to as high as 2.8% earlier this month. However, new telescopic observations have since ruled out nearly all risk scenarios, leading ESA to remove it from its risk list.
Initial Concerns and Rising Probabilities
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first identified on 27 December 2024 by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in RÃo Hurtado, Chile. Following its discovery, ESA’s automated planetary defence system, Aegis, flagged the object as a potential impact risk. Given its estimated size of 40 to 90 metres, an impact could have caused severe regional damage, prompting international asteroid monitoring efforts.
For two months, ESA’s Near-Earth Object Coordination Centre, along with other space agencies and observatories, tracked and refined the asteroid’s projected path. As more data became available, an increasing number of potential orbits placed 2024 YR4 on a collision course with Earth, leading to growing concerns. By 18 February 2025, the estimated impact probability had peaked at 2.8%, one of the highest risk assessments seen in recent years.
New Data Confirms No Threat
However, further observations quickly alleviated fears. On 19 February, astronomers using the European Southern Observatory’s Very Large Telescope significantly refined the asteroid’s trajectory, immediately halving the impact probability. In the following days, additional observations confirmed that the vast majority of potential impact paths had been eliminated, leading ESA to lower the probability to 0.001%.
As a result, asteroid 2024 YR4 has now dropped from Level 3 to Level 0 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, meaning it no longer poses a significant threat. The International Asteroid Warning Network has concluded its monitoring efforts, and ESA has confirmed that the asteroid is no longer a priority for planetary defence tracking.
A Predictable Pattern in Asteroid Tracking
ESA has emphasised that the rise and fall of the asteroid’s impact probability followed a well-understood pattern. When a new asteroid is discovered, its orbit is initially uncertain, leading to a temporary rise in impact probability as calculations refine its potential paths. However, as astronomers gather more data, the possible orbits narrow, often eliminating any real threat.
While 2024 YR4 has now been effectively dismissed as a hazard, planetary defence teams continue to monitor other near-Earth objects, ensuring that any future potential threats are detected and analysed with precision.
